RSS-4 (Bangkok) NR price, benchmark international price, zoomed 16.7% to US$ 2.55 per kg in March 2024 over February 2024. The international price of NR RSS-4 (Bangkok) shows an increase of 48.6% in March 2024 over March 2023. The NR price has remained nearly flat at US$ 2.53 per kg in early April 2024.

Rubber production, consumption, trade

India's total rubber production increased 12.6% to 133,404 tonnes in November 2023 over November 2022. The NR production dipped -1.1% to 91,000 tonnes, while the SR production jumped 60.2% to 42,404 tonnes in November 2023. India's total rubber consumption moved up 0.4% to 173,650 tonnes in November 2023.

The rubber production jumped 7.8% to 886,457 tonnes in April-November FY2024, against 7.0% growth in the same period last year, while the rubber consumption improved 4.0% to 1,466,400 tonnes compared with 7.5% rise in the corresponding period last year. The rubber imports declined -16.9% to 66,327 tonnes in November 2023 over a year ago, compared with -9.2% dip recorded in November 2022. NR imports dipped -22.6% to 36,334 tonnes, while the SR imports slipped -8.8% to 29,993 tonnes.

The consumption of rubber by auto tyre manufacturers, which accounted for 67.1% of total consumption, declined -2.7% to 116,577 tonnes in November 2023 over November 2022. The consumption of rubber by auto tyre manufacturers, accounting for 67.4% of the total consumption was flat at 988,499 tonnes in April-November FY2024 over April-November FY2023.

Natural Rubber

The output of NR declined -1.1% to 91,000 tonnes in November 2023 over a year ago. The production of NR preliminarily estimated for December 2023 is 108,000 tonne, up 0.9% from 107,000 tonne produced during the same month a year ago. The NR consumption moved up 1.8% to 112,000 tonnes in November 2023. Preliminary estimate suggests that the country consumed 116,000 tonne of NR during December 2023, up 6.4% over 109,000 tonne in November 2022.India's NR imports slipped -22.6% to 36,334 tonnes, while the NR export jumped 223.5% to 385 tonnes in November 2023.

The NR consumption improved 5.7% to 949,000 tonnes, while the NR production increased 1.7% to 526,000 tonnes in April-November FY2024 over a year ago. The NR imports eased -12.8% to 330,228 tonnes, while the NR exports increased 33.6% to 2,257 tonnes in April-November FY2024.

The NR stocks stood at 3.38 lakh tonnes in November 2023 compared with 3.23 lakh tonnes in the previous month. The NR stocks have declined from 4.12 lakh tonnes in November 2022.

Synthetic Rubber

India's SR production surged 60.2% to 42,404 tonnes in November 2023 over November 2022. The consumption of SR declined -2.1% to 61,650 tonnes, while the imports eased -8.8% to 29,993 tonnes in November 2023. The consumption of SR by auto tyre makers declined -1.2% to 41,725 tonnes in November 2023.

The SR stocks rose to 133,775 tonnes end November 2023 from 132,230 tonnes in the previous month. The SR stocks showed jump from 125,150 tonnes end November 2022.

The SR production moved up 18.2% to 360,457 tonnes, while consumption improved 1.0% to 517,400 tonnes in April-November FY2024 over a year ago. The imports of SR declined -2.2% to 235,131 tonnes. The consumption of SR by auto tyre makers was flat at 351,893 tonnes.

ANRPC NR Trends February 2024

During the first two months of 2024, there has been a notable improvement in NR market sentiments, despite ongoing concerns surrounding global economic growth. While this shift is indeed positive, it is important to note that it remains subject to various uncertainties within the global landscape. This positive change in market sentiment can largely be attributed to the unexpectedly tight supply of rubber, as many NR-producing countries enter the seasonal leaf fall period. The impact of factors such as Pestalotiopsis or Circular Leaf Fall Disease and adverse climate conditions has also exacerbated the supply challenges, compounded by the reluctance of rubber smallholders to harvest the trees due to protracted low rubber prices. This issue persists amidst the growing emphasis on sustainability within the NR industry, with the voices of smallholders often going unheard. As a result, these supply-side dynamics have significantly contributed to the overall improvement in sentiment.

Outlook

The domestic NR prices have jumped to 3-year high in tandem with global prices on account of floods in major producing country –Thailand and improving demand. The prices are expected to continue to track the performance of regional rubber futures markets, the strength of ringgit against the US dollar coupled with benchmark crude oil prices amid NR shortage. Markets operators will continue to monitor updates on the US and China economies especially signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve while keeping a close watch on developments surrounding the Middle East tensions. The rubber industry faces several challenges, including environmental concerns related to rubber plantation expansion and the sustainability of synthetic rubber production. Innovations in bio-based rubbers and recycling technologies present opportunities to address these issues, potentially leading to more environmentally friendly and sustainable rubber production methods. As the industry continues to evolve, understanding the balance between natural and synthetic rubber's benefits and drawbacks will be crucial for future developments.