Sector Trends     22-Apr-24
Commodity Futures
Edible Oils: FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index Hits One Year High
Import of vegetable oils during February 2024 is reported at 974,852 tons compared to 1,114,481 tons in February 2023, consisting 967,852 tons of edible oils and 7,000 tons of non-edible oils i.e. down by 13%.
There are signs of a recovery in local edible oil prices amid similar cues from global markets. The wholesale price index of manufacture of vegetable and animal oils and fats stood at 141.20 in February 2024, up 0.86% compared to January 2024 though the index is still down 13.32% on year. It had dipped to 140 in January 2024- testing lowest since October 2020. The near term focus will shift on the arrival of rabi oilseeds while overall demand appears steady amid firm economic cues. Meanwhile, the average mustard yield in India can jump by 35% over five years even with the currently available seeds if the ideal agronomic practices are adopted, according to study conducted by the Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA). Mustard is an ideal crop for low monsoon and less irrigated areas as it offers higher returns with a low cost of production and less water.

India is likely to boost local oilseed production, the finance minister said in this year's Union Budget. A strategy would be formulated to achieve self-reliance in oil seeds such as rapeseed, peanuts, sesame, soybean, and sunflower, Nirmala Sitharaman said while presenting the interim budget. A renewed research to develop high-yielding varieties, widespread adoption of modern farming techniques, market linkages, assured purchases, value addition, and crop insurance would help boost oilseed production, she said. Under Atmanirbhar Oil Seeds Abhiyan, the government will focus on improving the production of five oilseeds: soybean, mustard, sunflower, groundnut, and sesame. It will be driven by initiatives around improving access to better seeds, widespread adoption of modern farming techniques, establishing market linkages, value-addition and access to crop insurance.

India's Vegetable Oil Import Slides 13% On Year In February

The SEA has released import data of Vegetable Oils (edible & non-edible) for the month of February 2024. Import of vegetable oils during February 2024 is reported at 974,852 tons compared to 1,114,481 tons in February 2023, consisting 967,852 tons of edible oils and 7,000 tons of non-edible oils i.e. down by 13%. The overall import of vegetable oils during first four months of the oil year during Nov.’23 to Feb.’24 is reported at 4,647,963 tons compared to 5,887,900 tons during the same period of last year i.e. down by 21%.

According to SEA, India’s export of Oilmeals for the month of February 2024 is provisionally reported at 515,704 tons compared to 471,770 tons in February 2023 i.e. up by 9%. The overall export of oilmeals during April 2023 to February 2024 reported at 4,490,055 tons compared to 3,760,329 tons i.e. up by 19%. The export of soybean meal during Apr.’23 to Feb.’24, reported at 19.34 lakh tons compared to 7.87 lakh tons during the same period of last year as Indian soybean meal was most competitive in the international market. However, currently as on 13th March 2024, Indian soybean meal Ex-Kandla has quoted at US$ 490 per ton while soya meal Argentine cif Rotterdam at US$ 415 per ton facing strong competition from Argentine origin and likely to slow down.

FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index Hits One Year High

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 130.6 points in March, up 9.7 points (8.0 percent) from February and reaching a one-year high. The marked rebound reflected higher price quotations across palm, soy, sunflower and rapeseed oils. International palm oil prices continued to increase in March, underpinned by seasonally lower outputs in leading producing countries that coincided with firm domestic demand in Southeast Asia. In the meantime, world soyoil prices recovered from multi-year lows, mostly supported by continued robust demand from the biofuel sector, particularly in the United States of America and Brazil. Likewise, sunflower and rapeseed oil prices recovered in March, amid rising global import demand. Furthermore, higher crude oil prices also contributed to the increase in vegetable oil quotations.

Outlook:

Global Soybean futures are edging up after testing three-year lows at the start of March 2024 on broad demand worries. China imported 13.04 million metric tons of soybeans for the first two months of the year, the lowest for the period in five years, customs data showed. Imports in January and February by the world's top oilseed buyer fell 8.8% from the same period a year ago, according to the General Administration of Customs. Prices fell amid sluggish exports and hefty global supplies and calls of heavy Brazilian soybean crop. However, Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB) has recently noted that the weather in the main producing regions, especially for soybeans and summer crop corn, has been negatively affecting crops. This is now pushing prices up.

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