Sector Trends     25-Apr-24
Commodity Futures
Automobiles: Double Digit Growth Noted Across Segments In FY24
Domestic automobile market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with the industry banking on improved customer engagement and financing schemes.
The Ministry of Heavy Industries has introduced the Electric Mobility Promotion Scheme 2024 (EMPS 2024) with a US$ 60 million (Rs. 500 crore) budget to stimulate electric vehicle (EV) adoption nationwide. After the conclusion of the second phase of the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles (FAME-II) program on March 31, 2024, EMPS 2024 runs from April 1 to July 31, 2024. It aims to subsidize the purchase of electric two-wheelers (e-2Ws) and three-wheelers (e-3Ws) for four months. It targets supporting the adoption of 3,72,215 electric vehicles, comprising 3,33,387 e-2Ws and 38,828 e-3Ws, with incentives for advanced battery-equipped vehicles in commercial and private/corporate sectors. Under EMPS 2024, subsidies of up to US$ 120 (Rs. 10,000) for e-2Ws, US$ 300 (Rs. 25,000) for small e-3Ws like e-rickshaws and e-carts, and US$ 600 (Rs. 50,000) for large e-3Ws are provided. The scheme serves as a transition following the conclusion of FAME-II and is expected to pave the way for a comprehensive electric vehicle scheme in the post-election FY25 budget.

Production: -

The total production of Passenger Vehicles, Three Wheelers, Two Wheelers, and Quadricycle in March 2024 was 23,25,959 units, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM).

Domestic Sales: -

In March 2024, sales in the Passenger vehicle segment stood at 3,68,086 units, in Two-wheeler segment at 14,87,579 units and in Three-wheeler segment 56,723 units were sold. According to SIAM data, on the backdrop of a robust economic growth of 7.6% based on conducive policies of Government of India, the Indian Automobile Industry has posted a satisfactory performance with domestic industry growing by 12.5% during the last Financial Year. Passenger Vehicle segment led the growth with overall sales touching almost 5-million units including 4.2 million domestic (growth of 8.4%) and 0.7 million exports. Two-wheeler segment continued the recovery path with a handsome growth of over 13% in domestic sales to almost 18 million units; even though still lower than the earlier peak of 21 million units in FY19.

Domestic Commercial Vehicle industry had a marginal growth to 9.7 million units and within that, some drop was experienced in LCVs and SCVs due to de-growth in CNG segment. The growth in Commercial vehicles was also impacted due to migration to higher tonnage trucks which created higher payload capacity that is not reflected in the number of units. Three-Wheeler industry is almost close to the earlier peak of 0.7 million units in FY 19. Overall exports remained under stress during the last financial year with sizeable drop in Commercial Vehicles, Two-Wheelers and Three-Wheelers, though Passenger vehicles grew marginally. However, good recovery was seen in the last quarter, especially for two-wheelers, indicating better potential for the current year.

Bajaj Auto: -

Bajaj Auto Limited has reported its sales figures for the month of March 2024. In the two-wheeler segment, domestic sales stood at 183,004 units in March 2024, showing a rise of 20 per cent compared to the same month last year. Two-wheelers export numbers rose by 38 percent over March 2023, with 130,881units sold in March 2024.Combining both domestic and export figures for two-wheelers, Bajaj Auto Limited sold a total of 313,885units in March 2024, marking a 27 per cent increase from March 2023.

Moving to commercial vehicles, the company reported domestic sales of 37,389 units in March2024, a substantial increase of 09 per cent over March2023.Moreover, exports for commercial vehicles saw a sharp rise of 42 percent, with 14,630units in March2024. When considering both domestic and export numbers for commercial vehicles, the total sales in March2024 amounted to 52,019 units, showing a significant growth of 17 percent.

As for overall sales, including both two-wheelers and commercial vehicles, domestic sales in March 2024rose to 220,393units, up 18percent from March 2023. Similarly, exports saw a 39 per cent increase in March 2024. The total sales for Bajaj Auto Limited in March 2024 accounted for 365,904 units, reflecting a 25 percent increase from March 2023.

Combining both 2W and CV segments, Bajaj Auto showcased a mixed performance in the year-to-date sales for April 2023 to March 2024 with domestic sales being higher by 29 percent to 27,14,723 units while exports suffered a 10 percent decline to 16,36,210 units YTD. Cumulative total sales thus improved by a moderate 11 percent to 43,50,933 units in the April to March 2024 period.

Hero MotoCorp: -

Hero MotoCorp, the world’s largest manufacturer of motorcycles and scooters, closed the financial year 2023-24 with sales of 56,21,455 units of motorcycles and scooters. The company registered a growth of 10 percent in the fourth quarter (Jan-Mar’24) of the fiscal year. Hero MotoCorp also registered 16 percent growth in its global business sales during the fiscal year. In March 2024, the company sold 490,415 units of motorcycles and scooters.

Hero MotoCorp sold 456,724 motorcycles in March 2024 compared to 485,896 units sold during the same period last year i.e. March 2023. In YTD FY24, it sold 5,190,672 motorcycles. In case of scooters, the company sold 33,691 units last month. For FY24, sales of scooters increased to 430,783 units. Now, coming to the domestic sales, the company sold 459,257 units in India in March 2024 as against 502,730units sold here during the same period last year. In YTD FY24, domestic sales were at 5,420,532 units. The exports also saw a significant rise as the company dispatched 31,158 units last month. In FY24, export sales increased to 200,923 units.

Hero MotoCorp announced its strategic plan to commence operations in Europe and UK in FY’25. The company also bolstered some of its key international markets such as Nepal, Costa Rica, by appointing new distributor partners in the region.

TVS motors: -

TVS Motor Company registered a growth of 12% on year with sales increasing to 354,592 units in March 2024.

Total two-wheelers registered a growth of 12% with sales increasing to 344,446 units in March 2024. Domestic two-wheeler registered growth of 8% with sales increasing from 240,780 units in March 2023 to 260,532 units in March 2023.Motorcycle registered a growth of 22% with sales increasing from 141,250 units in March 2023 to 171,611 units in March 2024. Scooter registered a growth of 2% with sales increasing from 128,817 units in March 2023 to 131,472 units in March 2024.

The company's total exports registered a growth of 23% with sales increasing from 75,037 units in March 2023 to 91,972 units in March 2024. Two-wheeler exports registered a growth of 26% with sales increasing from 66,779 units in March 2023 to 83,914 units in March 2024.

Three-wheeler of the Company registered a growth of 6% with sales increasing from 9,593 units in March 2023 to 10,146 units in March 2024.

The company achieved the highest Vahan retails in March 2024. Electric Vehicle dispatches are moderated for smooth transition into the new EV incentive scheme from the Government. The electric vehicles recorded sales of 15,250 units in March 2024 as against sales of 15,364 units in March 2023.

Maruti Suzuki India Limited (MSIL):

In March 2024, Maruti Suzuki India Limited sold a total of 187,196 units. Total sales in the month include domestic sales of 156,330 units, sales to other OEM of 4,974 units and exports of 25,892 units. For the financial year 2023-24, the company posted its highest ever total sales of 2,135,323 units. Total sales include highest ever domestic sales of 1,793,644 units and highest ever exports of 283,067 units.

In March 2024, the mini segment comprising of Alto and S-Presso contributed to 11,829 units, down from 11,582units in March 2023. For FY24, sales for mini segment stood at 142,094 units. Compact segment sales accounted for 69,844 units decreasing from 71,832units in March2023. In FY24, compact sales fell to 828,015 units.

Ciaz, a lone offering in the mid-size segment raked in 590 units in March 2024. In the broadly defined UV segment, wholesales stood at 54,436units in March 2024 increasing from 37,054 units. The UV segment registered 642,296 units in FY24. The Eeco van contributed to 12,019 units in March 2024 and 137,139 units in FY24. With this, total domestic PV sales accounted for 152,718 units in March 2024 and 1,759,881 units in FY24. MSIL offers the Super Carry in the LCV segment. Sales stood at 3,612 units in March 2024, down from 3,356 units. For FY24, Super Carry segment sales stood at 33,763 units. Total MSIL domestic sales stood at 156,330units for March 2024 and 1,793,644 units for FY24.

Maruti also make cars for Toyota India under an ongoing agreement. Sales to other OEM were reported at 4,974units in March 2024, up from 3,165 units in March 2023. For FY24, sales to other OEM dropped to 58,612 units. This took total domestic sales and sales to OEM up to 161,304 units in March 2024 and 1,852,256 units in FY24. Exports rose to 25,892 units in March 2024, down from 30,119 units in March 2023. In March 2024, sales managed to cross 187,000 units and recorded 2,135,323 units in FY24.

Tata Motors: -

Tata Motors Limited sales in the domestic & international market for Q4 FY 2023-24 rose 5 percent on year to 2,65,090 vehicles.

Domestic sales of MH&ICV in March 2024, were 19,976 units. In Q4 FY24 it dropped 7 percent to 50,643 units. Domestic & International sales for MH&ICV in March 2024, were 20,551 units; while in Q4 FY24 it stood at 52,186 units.

Total passenger vehicle sales of Tata Motors stood at 50,297 units in March 2024, rising 14 percent from March 2023. For FY24, total passenger vehicles increased 6 percent to 5,73,495 units. The domestic passenger vehicle sales stood at 51,110 units in March 2024 and 5,70,955 units in FY24. The company has however found its electric models much in demand with 6,738units sold last month, up04 percent over March 2023. For FY24, Tata Motors sold 73,833 units increasing 48 percent over FY23.

Total domestic commercial vehicles sales are at 40,712 units in March 2024, down10 percent over March 2023. For FY24, domestic commercial vehicle sales fell 4 percent to 3,78,060 units. In the HCV segment, sales decreased 11 percent Y-o-Y in March 2024 to 12,710 units while in ILMCV segment, sales decrease 19 percent at 6,781 units. Passenger carrier sales reached 5,854 units in March2024 compared to 3,973 units in March 2023. SCV cargo and Pick-up sales decreased 18 percent Y-o-Y to 15,367 units sold last month. Commercial vehicle exports increased 02 percent to 1,550 units exported in March 2024.In FY24, commercial vehicle exports dropped 12 percent to 17,785 units. Total commercial vehicles sales for March 2024 stood at 42,262 units and 3,95,845 units in FY24.

Outlook: -

According to the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA), in March 2024, the Indian Auto Retail sector experienced modest growth of 3.14% Y-o-Y. The two-wheeler (2W) and three-wheeler (3W) segments saw increases of 5% and 17% respectively, while passenger vehicles (PV), tractors (Trac) and commercial vehicles (CV) faced declines of 6%, 3%, and 6% respectively.

The 2W segment demonstrated resilience and adaptability, with electric vehicle (EV) sales surging due to the expiration of the FAME 2 subsidy on March 31st. This led to a notable boost in the 2W-EV market share to 9.12%. Positive market sentiment was supported by seasonal events, improved vehicle supply, and financial incentives. The 3W segment showed an encouraging sales trend hitting an all-time high retail, driven by the growing acceptance of EVs. The PV sector encountered challenges, with an M-o-M decrease of 2% and a Y-o-Y fall of 6%. The downturn was influenced by heavy discounting and selective financing further.

For the CV sector, March presented a complex scenario. The sector grappled with issues like recent declines, poor agricultural outcomes, discount pressures and financing difficulties. On the upside, there was strong demand in specific areas such as coal and cement transportation, bolstered by bulk orders and vehicle upgrades, which enhanced customer engagement.

With a notable decline in consumer sentiment among urban Indians, as reported by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the automotive sector faces a nuanced challenge. This downturn, characterized by a restraint in discretionary spending within urban income brackets, adds a layer of complexity to the industry's landscape. In this scenario, the decision of the MPC of the RBI to keep lending rates unchanged at 6.5% would continue to badly impact the retail sales of all vehicles, especially entry level vehicles as these buyers are extremely price sensitive.

The industry's adaptability is further tested by improved supply dynamics and an increasing bend towards electric mobility, alongside enticing financing options, all poised to mitigate the effects of the current economic sentiment and electoral caution. The automotive sector's resilience is thus spotlighted, with concerted efforts to tackle these challenges through innovation and strategic market engagement. As it navigates through a period marked by careful optimism, the sector is positioned for a cautious yet hopeful trajectory towards recovery.

Heading into FY’25, the Indian Auto Industry is poised for growth amidst a mix of optimism and challenges. The excitement around new product launches, particularly electric vehicles, sets a forward-looking tone. Manufacturers are gearing up with better supply chains and an array of models to meet diverse consumer demands.

FADA noted that domestic automobile market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with the industry banking on improved customer engagement and financing schemes to boost sales. However, it faces challenges like high base in PV segment and intense competition. The focus is on overcoming these hurdles with innovation and strategic market engagement, aiming for a balanced growth across all the segments. As FY’25 unfolds, the Indian Auto Industry is navigating through evolving market demands and economic conditions, leveraging its strengths for sustainable growth and a wider reach.

Tables and Charts:

All India Vehicle Retail Data
CATEGORY MAR'24 MAR’23 Y-o-Y% FEB’24 MoM%
2W 15,29,875 14,50,913 5.44% 14,39,523 6.28%
3W 1,05,222 89,837 17.13% 94,918 10.86%
PV 3,22,345 3,43,527 -6.17% 3,30,107 -2.35%
TRAC 78,446 81,148 -3.33% 76,626 2.38%
CV 91,289 96,984 -5.87% 88,367 3.31%
Total 21,27,177 20,62,409 3.14% 20,29,541 4.81%

Source: FADA

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