The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI – a composite index produced by J.P.Morgan and S&P Global Market Intelligence in association with ISM and IFPSM – posted 50.9 in June, down slightly from May's high of 51.0. The PMI has remained above the neutral 50.0 mark, signalling improved operating conditions, for five months in a row. Four out of the five PMI sub-indices were at levels consistent with expansion in June, with output, new orders and employment all rising and suppliers' delivery times lengthening. In contrast, there was a slight decrease in stocks of purchases for the fourth month running.

Meanwhile, in India, in the non-ferrous metal sector, production of primary Aluminium metal in FY 2023-24 hit record level at 41.6 lakh tonnes (LT). In the current financial year, Aluminium production continues to be on a growth track. Aluminium production during April 2024 at 3.42 LT is higher than the 3.39 LT production during April 2023by 1%. India is the 2nd largest Aluminium producer, 3rd largest lime producer and 4th largest iron ore producer in the world. Continued growth in production of iron ore and limestone in the current financial year reflect the robust demand conditions in the user industries viz. steel and cement.

World Refined Copper Production Up 5.5% In First Four Months Of 2024

According to a latest update from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), preliminary data indicates that world copper mine production increased by about 4.9% in the first four months of 2024, with concentrate production increasing by 2.9% and solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) growing by 13.5%. Global mine production in the first four months of 2024 has benefited from a recovery from constrained output in 2023 (mainly in Chile, Indonesia, Peru and the USA) as well as additional production from mine projects ramping up to capacity namely in the D.R. Congo (DRC). Production in Chile increased by 2%, with concentrate output up by 3.2% and SX-EW down by 1.6%.

Preliminary data indicates that output in the DRC grew by about 24% mainly as a consequence of the expansion of the Kamoa mine together with new/expanded capacity at other smaller mines. In Peru, copper mine production increased by 1% recovering from reduced output at the beginning of 2023 when operating levels at a number of mines were impacted by local communities’ actions.

Preliminary data indicates that world refined copper production increased by about 5.5% in the first four months of 2024 with primary production (electrolytic and electrowinning from ores) up by 5% and secondary production (from scrap) up by 7%. Growth in world refined production was mainly as a result of strong performances in China and the DRC due to expanded capacity, with global output elsewhere increasing by only 1.2%. China and the DRC together account for about 54% of world refined copper production.

Preliminary data suggests that world apparent refined copper usage grew by about 4% in the first four months of 2024. Growth in world refined usage was mainly supported by strong apparent demand in China, with usage in the rest of the world estimated to have increased by a limited 1%. Preliminary world refined copper balance indicates an apparent surplus of about 299,000 tonnes in the four months 2024.

Global aluminum market is experiencing growth amid good demand

Allied Market Research stated in a report that the global aluminum market was valued at $162 billion in 2023, and is estimated to reach $285.4 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 5.9% from 2024 to 2033. The global aluminum market is experiencing growth due to several factors such as expansion of the transport sector and surge in demand from the construction industry. However, growth in competition from substitutes hinders market growth to some extent. Moreover, the technological advancements in the aluminum industry present additional opportunities for aluminum. Innovations in manufacturing processes are driving efficiency and sustainability in aluminum production. Advanced smelting technologies, such as inert anode technology and electrolytic cells with higher energy efficiency, are reducing energy consumption and emissions during aluminum extraction. In addition, recycling technologies are becoming increasingly sophisticated, allowing for the recovery of high-quality aluminum from scrap with minimal loss of properties. This emphasis on sustainability aligns with global initiatives to reduce carbon footprint and promote circular economies.

Outlook:

The LME Aluminium inventories have been rising on a sustained basis and hit seven month high in first week of July 2024. A sustained rise in the stockpiles could weigh on the prices in near term. LME Copper prices for 3 month delivery averaged $9780 per tonne in June 2024, down 4.49% compared to May 2024 though prices are up nearly 16% compared to June 2023. LME Aluminium prices averaged $2547 per tonne in June 2024, down 2% compared to May 2024 while LME Zinc averaged $2860 per tonne in June 2024, down 4.70% on a monthly basis and wrapping up a mostly downbeat performance for major base metal prices.