Meanwhile, in a supportive development for global metal demand, the J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI – a composite index produced by J.P.Morgan and S&P Global Market Intelligence in association with ISM and IFPSM – rose to 50.1 in January, to signal the first (albeit marginal) improvement in operating conditions for seven months. Regional variations remained marked, with business conditions being affected by, among other things, the possibility of US tariffs being imposed during the coming year.

Three of the five PMI sub-indices – output, new orders and suppliers' delivery times – had positive influences on the headline figure at the start of the year. In contrast, employment and stocks of purchases continued to decline. January saw global manufacturing production nudge back into expansion territory following a mild contraction in December. The main factor underlying increased production volumes was a similar upturn in new orders.

Looking at the major industrial nations, growth was again led by India. The US also saw a noticeable shift in its performance, with output growth hitting a seven-month high to break the five-month sequence of contractions registered before the turn of the year. The rate of expansion also strengthened in China. Divergences between regions remained prominent though, with downturns continuing in the euro area, Japan and the UK (albeit at slower rates for the euro area and UK).

World refined copper production up 3.7% in first 11 months of 2024, usage rises 2.6%

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) stated that world copper mine production increased by about 1.5% over the first eleven months of 2024, with concentrate production increasing by 1.6% and solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) by 1%.

Global Copper mine production benefited from a recovery from constrained output in 2023 (mainly in Chile and Indonesia) as well as additional production from mine projects ramping up to capacity namely in the D.R. Congo (DRC), Botswana, Mongolia and Serbia. However, these rises were partially offset by declines in a number of other countries, including major producers Canada, Panama, Peru and the United states.

Production in Chile increased by 4%, primarily benefiting from improved output at the Escondida and Collahuasi mines and the ramp-up of Quebrada Blanca (QB2). Chilean concentrate output was up by 8% in contrast to SX-EW which was down by 8.5%.

Preliminary data indicates that world refined copper production increased by about 3.7% in the first eleven months of 2024 with primary production (electrolytic and electrowinning from ores) up by 3.9% and secondary production (from scrap) up by 3%. Growth in world refined production was mainly a result of strong performances in China and the DRC due to expanded capacity.

Preliminary data suggests that world apparent refined copper usage grew by about 2.6% in the first eleven months of 2024. Preliminary world refined copper balance indicates an apparent surplus of about 168,000 t in the first eleven months of 2024.

China's aluminium production up 4.2% on year in December 2024

China's aluminium production continued to increase in December 2024, benefitting from newer production capacity and increased operating rate like the last month. According to the data published by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's aluminium output in the final month of 2024 rose month-on-month as well as year-on-year by 1.62% and 4.2%, respectively.

India’s Copper output jumps around 7.3% in FY25.

According to latest data from Ministry of Mines, in the non-ferrous metal sector, primary Aluminium production in FY 2024-25 (April- December) posted a growth of 1.6% over the corresponding period last year, increasing to 31.56 lakh ton (LT) in FY 2024-25 (April- December) from 31.07 LT in FY 2023-24 (April- December). During the same comparative period, refined copper production has grown by 7.3% from 3.69 LT to 3.96 LT, up around 7.3% on year.

Impact of Union Budget 2025:

India has scrapped customs duty on waste and scrap of a number of critical minerals, Finance Minister NirmalaSitharaman said during her annual budget speech. India scrapped customs duty on waste and scrap of antimony, cobalt, tungsten and copper scrap etc. Customs duties on waste and scrap of lithium-ion battery, as well as waste and scrap of lead, zinc and cobalt powder were also scrapped.

Outlook:

The near term price action in base metals will depend to a large extent on equity market mood and global tariff scenario. Economic outlook is largely positive though and Chinese economic data after the Lunar New year holiday will help offer a near term direction for metal prices.