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Central Statistical Office (CSO), operating under Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI), is scheduled to release the data on India's industrial production (base year 2011-12=100) for the month of January 2025 on 12 March 2025.
Capital Market has conducted a poll amongst economists across leading banks, rating agencies, financial advisories and brokerages for January 2025 IIP growth projections. The results of the poll as indicated by the median of IIP growth forecasts from economists, shows that industrial production growth would remain steady at 3.4% in January 2025 as against 3.2% growth recorded in December 2024.
Economists expect IIP growth to be in the range of 3.0-3.7% in January 2025. The median of various IIP growth forecast received from economists stood at 3.4%, while the average was also at 3.4% for January 2025.
Eight core infrastructure sector: January 2025
The output of eight core industries, with a combined weight of 40.3% in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), increased 4.6% in January 2025 over January 2024. The output of cement increased 14.5%, petroleum refinery products 8.3% and coal 4.6%. Further, the output of steel increased 3.7%, fertilizers increased 3.0% and electricity generation 1.3%. However, the output of crude oil declined 1.1%, natural gas 1.5% in January 2025. The output of the core sectors increased 4.4% in April-January FY2025 compared with the rise of 7.8% in April-January FY2024.
During January 2025, the eight-core infrastructure sector would contribute overall IIP growth with the positive share of 199 bps, based on 40.3% weight and 4.6% growth in output recorded for the month. The contribution of the eight-core infrastructure sector is showing decline in contribution to the IIP from 204 bps in December 2024.
Index of industrial production: December 2024
India's industrial production (base year 2011-12=100) increased 3.22% in December 2024, showing moderation in growth from 5.2% growth in November 2024. The manufacturing sector output moved up 3.03%, while the mining sector output rose 2.58% in December 2024. Further, the electricity generation jumped 6.17% in December 2024 contributing to the overall rise in industrial production.
As per the use-based classification, the output of primary goods moved up 3.82% in December 2024, while the output of capital goods increased 10.31% in December 2024. Further, the production of intermediate goods rose 5.94% and infrastructure/ construction goods gained 6.32% in December 2024. Within the consumer durables, the output of consumer durables increased 8.30% and consumer non-durables fell 7.62% in December 2024.
In terms of industries, 16 out of 23 industry groups in the manufacturing sector have shown positive growth during the month of December 2024 as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year.
India's industrial production increased 4.03% in April-December FY2025. The manufacturing sector output increased 3.95%, while the mining sector output gained 3.26% in April-December FY2025. Further, the electricity generation also moved up 5.42% in April-December FY2025.
World Industrial production growth: December 2024
As per the data compiled by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, the world industrial production increased 2.5% in December 2024 compared to 2.3% rise in December 2023. The industrial output in emerging economies improved 4.7%, while industrial output in advanced economies gained 0.1% in December 2024 over December 2023.
The industrial production of the Euro area declined 2.5% and Japan also fell 2.5%, while that of US rose 0.3% in December 2024 over December 2023.
Among the emerging economies, the industrial output of China increased 6.2%. While that of emerging Asia excluding China moved up 2.9% in December 2024. The industrial production of the Eastern Europe rose 8.1% in December 2024.
| World Industrial Production Excluding Construction 2005=100 |
|
Weights |
May-24 |
Jun-24 |
Jul-24 |
Aug-24 |
Sep-24 |
Oct-24 |
Nov-24 |
Dec-24 |
| World |
100.0 |
1.9 |
1.5 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
2.5 |
| Advanced economies |
56.3 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.2 |
0.1 |
-0.6 |
-0.1 |
-0.7 |
0.1 |
| Euro Area |
15.3 |
-4.4 |
-3.8 |
-2.1 |
-0.6 |
-1.8 |
-1.2 |
-1.7 |
-2.5 |
| United States |
17.2 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
-0.5 |
-0.1 |
-0.7 |
-0.4 |
-0.9 |
0.3 |
| United Kingdom |
2.2 |
-1.0 |
-2.9 |
-2.9 |
-2.1 |
-2.0 |
-1.1 |
-1.8 |
-1.8 |
| Japan |
8.4 |
0.5 |
-4.5 |
-0.3 |
-3.0 |
-1.7 |
-0.2 |
-1.9 |
-2.5 |
| Advanced Asia excl Japan |
3.6 |
6.0 |
6.7 |
5.8 |
7.8 |
4.6 |
3.5 |
4.4 |
9.8 |
| Other advanced economies |
9.6 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
1.1 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
-0.1 |
1.1 |
| Emerging economies |
43.7 |
4.1 |
3.4 |
4.1 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
4.7 |
| China |
16.7 |
6.0 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
4.6 |
5.2 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
6.2 |
| Emerging Asia excl China |
6.5 |
3.5 |
2.7 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
1.7 |
2.1 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
| Eastern Europe / CIS |
3.3 |
5.7 |
3.8 |
2.9 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
3.8 |
4.5 |
8.1 |
| Latin America |
8.2 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
1.8 |
1.4 |
2.0 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
| Africa and Middle East |
9.1 |
-1.4 |
-2.3 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
-0.7 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
| Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, Seasonally and working day adjusted (CPB) |
Outlook
The industrial product growth has moderated to 3.2% in December 2024 from a six-month high growth of 5.2% in November 2024, mainly driven by deceleration in the manufacturing sector growth. As per the used based classification, the growth as moderated for consumer durable goods and consumer non-durable has posted decline in the output snapping growth for the last three straight months. The growth has still remained broad based with 16 out of 23 manufacturing group recording growth in the production. The growth in the mining output and electricity generation has improved contributing to the growth of the industrial production.
The economic activity is expected to be supported by strong demand on account tax relief in the Union Budget 2025-26. The Reserve Bank of India has also providing liquidity support to the banking system to aid credit growth amid tight liquidity condition in the systems. The RBI has also kicked off interest rate cut cycle with 25 bps reduction in the policy repo rate in February 2025. However, headwinds from geo-political tensions, protectionist trade policies, volatility in international commodity prices and financial market uncertainties, continue to pose downside risks to the outlook.
| Economists Projections for IIP Growth - January 2025 |
| Organization |
Projection (%) |
| Bank of Baroda |
3.0 |
| ICRA |
3.1 |
| State Bank of India |
3.6 |
| Union Bank of India |
3.7 |
|
|
| Low |
3.0 |
| High |
3.7 |
| Average |
3.4 |
| Median |
3.4 |
| Growth of Major Indicators (%)-January 2025 |
| Indicator |
Jun-24 |
Jul-24 |
Aug-24 |
Sep-24 |
Oct-24 |
Nov-24 |
Dec-24 |
Jan-25 |
| IIP |
4.9 |
5.0 |
0.0 |
3.2 |
3.7 |
5.0 |
3.2 |
- |
| PMI - Manufacturing |
0.9 |
0.7 |
-1.9 |
-1.7 |
3.6 |
0.9 |
2.7 |
-11.9 |
| PMI Services Business Activity Index |
3.4 |
-3.2 |
1.3 |
-5.4 |
0.2 |
2.6 |
0.5 |
-8.6 |
| Composite PMI Output Index |
2.5 |
-1.9 |
-0.3 |
-4.4 |
1.2 |
2.1 |
1.2 |
-5.7 |
| Exports |
2.5 |
-1.5 |
-9.3 |
0.5 |
17.2 |
-4.8 |
-1.0 |
-2.4 |
| Imports |
5.0 |
7.5 |
3.3 |
1.6 |
3.9 |
16.0 |
4.9 |
10.3 |
| Services Exports (US$ Million) |
3.7 |
16.6 |
5.7 |
14.6 |
22.4 |
14.0 |
16.6 |
24.3 |
| Services Imports (US$ Million) |
-3.8 |
16.0 |
9.1 |
13.5 |
27.9 |
26.0 |
13.8 |
22.8 |
| Port Traffic |
4.3 |
6.0 |
6.7 |
5.9 |
-3.4 |
-5.0 |
3.3 |
6.1 |
| Non-food credit |
17.4 |
13.7 |
14.0 |
12.3 |
11.8 |
11.2 |
11.2 |
11.4 |
| Air Passenger Traffic |
7.8 |
7.8 |
7.5 |
8.1 |
9.8 |
13.3 |
10.4 |
13.4 |
| Air Freight Traffic (000 Tonnes) |
15.9 |
18.1 |
12.5 |
17.9 |
14.5 |
8.4 |
8.0 |
9.0 |
| Eight Core Infra Index |
5.0 |
6.3 |
-1.5 |
2.4 |
3.8 |
4.4 |
4.8 |
4.6 |
| Tea Production |
-1.9 |
-14.4 |
-1.2 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
9.6 |
-65.2 |
-2.1 |
| Fuel Product Consumption |
2.3 |
10.7 |
-3.1 |
-4.4 |
4.1 |
10.6 |
3.5 |
2.4 |
| Government Expenditure |
-18.4 |
0.1 |
20.9 |
2.6 |
31.7 |
3.6 |
22.1 |
12.4 |
| * CLI: Composite Leading Indicators |
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