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Office of the Economic Advisor to Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India is scheduled to release the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation data (Base 2011-12=100) for the month of February 2025 on 17 March 2025. The WPI inflation for February 2025 is expected to remain flat at 2.3% from 2.3% in January 2025.
Capital Market conducted the poll amongst economists for their projections of inflation figure for February 2025. As per the results of poll, the inflation rate is projected to remain steady at 2.3% in February 2025. Economists in the poll have projected WPI inflation in the range of 2.25-2.50% for February 2025. The median of the economists forecast's for inflation of February 2025 stood at 2.3%, while the average was slightly higher at 2.4%.
CPI Inflation: February 2025
The all-India general CPI inflation declined to 3.61% in February 2025 (new base 2012=100), compared with 4.26% in December 2024. The corresponding provisional inflation rate for rural area was 3.79% and urban area 3.32% in February 2025 as against 4.59% and 3.87% in December 2024. The core CPI inflation increased to 4.05% in February 2025 compared with 3.76% in December 2024. The cumulative CPI inflation has eased to 4.74% in April-February FY2025 compared with 5.41% in April-February FY2024.
Among the CPI components, inflation of food and beverages declined to 3.84% in February 2025 from 5.68% in December 2024. Within the food items, the inflation for vegetables declined to (-) 1.07%, meat and fish 2.11%, pulses and products -0.35%, egg (-) 3.01%, cereals and products 6.10% and milk and products 2.68%. However, the inflation for fruits increased to 14.82%, spices (-) 5.85% and oils and fats 16.36%. Further, the inflation for sugar and confectionery rose to 2.16%, prepared meals, snacks, sweets etc. 4.16% and non-alcoholic beverages 3.73% in February 2025.
The inflation for housing increased to 2.91%, while that for miscellaneous items rose to 4.78% in February 2025. Within the miscellaneous items, the inflation for personal care and effects increased to 13.58%, health 4.12%, transport and communication 2.87% and recreation and amusement 2.75%, while the inflation for education declined to 3.83% and household goods and services 2.86% in February 2025.
The inflation for clothing and footwear declined to 2.68%, while the CPI inflation of fuel and light rose to (-) 1.33% in February 2025.
WPI Inflation: January 2025
The Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation, base year 2011-12, declined to 2.3% in January 2025 from 2.4% in December 2024. Among the three major sub-groups, the inflation for primary articles declined contributing to the overall fall in inflation in January 2025, while inflation rose for fuel and power group and manufactured products group. The core inflation (manufactured products excluding foods products) moved up to 0.9% in January 2025 from 0.7% December 2024.
The WPI inflation is revised upwards to 2.16% for November 2024 from 1.89% reported at provisional level.
Inflation of primary articles declined to 4.7% in January 2025 from 6.0% in December 2024. However, the inflation for fuel and power group inflation increased to (-) 2.8% from (-) 3.8% in December 2024. Further, manufactured products inflation moved up to 2.5% in January 2025 from 2.1% in December 2024.
Inflation of food items (food articles and food products) fell to 7.5% in January 2025 from 8.9% in December 2024. Meanwhile, inflation of non-food items (all commodities excluding food items) increased to 0.3% in January 2025 from (-) 0.2% in December 2024.
The contribution of primary articles to the overall inflation of 2.3% declined to 127 basis points (bps) in January 2025, from contribution of 164 bps to 2.4% inflation in December 2024. The contribution of fuel product group increased to (-) 37 bps against (-) 51 bps in December 2024, while that of manufactured products rose to 149 bps in January 2025 from 127 bps in December 2024.
The contribution of food items (food articles and food products) to inflation of 2.3% in January 2025 fell to 214 bps from 257 bps to 2.4% in December 2024.Meanwhile, the contribution of non-food items (all commodities excluding food items) gained to 23 bps in January 2025 from (-) 18 bps in December 2024.
FAO Food Price Index: February 2025
The benchmark for global food commodity prices rose in February, propelled by increases in sugar, dairy, and vegetable oil prices, according to the new Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) report. The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a set of globally traded food commodities, averaged 127.1 points in February, up 1.6% from the previous month and 8.2% higher than its February 2024 level.
The surge was largely driven by the FAO Sugar Price Index, which rose by 6.6% from January after three consecutive months of decline, reaching 118.5 points in February. The increase was fuelled by concerns over likely tighter global supplies for the 2024/25 season, particularly due to declining production prospects in India and adverse weather conditions affecting crops in Brazil.
The FAO Dairy Price Index increased by 4.0% from January, averaging 148.7 points. The rise was the result of higher prices across all major dairy products, including cheese and whole milk powder, as strong import demand exceeded production in key exporting regions.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 156.0 points in February, up 2.0% from January and as much as 29.1% higher than a year earlier. The increase was largely the result of higher prices for palm, soy, and sunflower oils, driven by seasonal supply constraints in Southeast Asia and robust demand from the biodiesel sector.
The FAO Cereal Price Index edged up 0.7% in February, averaging 112.6 points. Wheat prices increased due to tighter supplies in the Russian Federation and concerns over crop conditions in Eastern Europe and North America, though the overall index remained slightly below its February 2024 level. World maize prices continued to rise, underpinned by tightening supplies in Brazil and strong US export demand. By contrast, world rice prices fell by 6.8% in February due to ample exportable supplies and weak import demand.
The FAO Meat Price Index held steady in February, averaging 118.0 points, down marginally by 0.1% from January. While international poultry and pig meat prices eased due to abundant supplies, ovine and bovine meat prices remained firm, supported by strong global import demand.
Outlook
The WPI inflation eased to 2.3% in January 2025 from 2.4% in December 2024. The moderation in food inflation with decline in the inflation for vegetable, pulses, eggs etc led to decline in the headline inflation. However, the core inflation has shown some pick up in January 2025. The food inflation pressures, absent any supply side shock, is likely to witness softening due to good kharif production, winter-easing in vegetable prices and favourable rabi crop prospects. Core inflation is expected to rise but remain moderate. Continued uncertainty in global financial markets coupled with volatility in energy prices and adverse weather events presents upside risks to the inflation trajectory.
| Organization |
Projection (%) |
| Bank of Baroda |
2.5 |
| ICRA |
2.3 |
| State Bank of India |
2.3 |
|
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| Low |
2.3 |
| High |
2.5 |
| Average |
2.4 |
| Median |
2.3 |
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