February 2025 saw the global manufacturing sector move further into expansion territory. Operating conditions improved for the second consecutive month, as rates of growth in output and new orders strengthened. Price pressures continued to rise, with both input costs and selling prices rising at faster rates. The J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI – a composite index produced by J.P.Morgan and S&P Global Market Intelligence in association with ISM and IFPSM – rose to an eight-month high of 50.6 in February, up from 50.1 in January.

The level of the China PMI improved, while contractions were signalled in the euro area, Japan and the UK (among others). Growth of global manufacturing output accelerated to an eight-month high in February. Expansions were registered in the consumer and intermediate goods sub-industries — with the faster growth in the former —while investment goods production stabilised following an eight-month downturn. Increased output was underpinned by improved intakes of incoming new business, as new orders rose at the quickest pace in almost three years (since March 2022).

World copper mine production rises 2.3% in 2024

International Copper Study Group (ICSG) released preliminary data for December world copper supply and demand in its February 2025 Copper Bulletin. Preliminary data indicates that world copper mine production increased by about 2.3% in 2024, with concentrate production increasing by 1.9% and solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) by 4%. In 2024, global mine production benefited from a recovery from constrained output in 2023 (mainly in Chile and Indonesia) as well as additional production from mine projects ramping up to capacity namely in the D.R. Congo (DRC), Botswana, Mongolia and Serbia. However, these rises were partially offset by declines in a number of other countries, including major producers Canada, Panama, Peru and the United States.

Preliminary data indicates that world refined copper production increased by about 4.2% in 2024 with primary production (electrolytic and electrowinning from ores) up by 4.7% and secondary production (from scrap) up by 2%. Growth in world refined production was mainly a result of strong performances in China and the DRC due to expanded capacity. China and the DRC together account for about 54% of world refined copper production.

Preliminary data suggests that world apparent refined copper usage grew by about 2.9% in 2024. Chinese apparent demand (excluding changes in bonded/unreported stocks), grew by around 3.5%. Chinese net refined copper imports increased by 3% (refined copper imports increased by 8% but this was largely balanced by an 64% rise in exports). World ex-China usage grew by about 2.2%: weak demand in the EU, Japan and the United States was offset by growth in a number of Asian and MENA countries.

ICSG noted that preliminary world refined copper balance indicates an apparent surplus of about 301,000 tonnes in 2024.

Global primary aluminium production edges up modestly in annual terms

The first month of 2025 saw a 2.73 per cent Y-o-Y rise in primary aluminium production but experienced a mild monthly dip, as per the International Aluminium Institute data. The annual growth was primarily backed by almost all the major global primary aluminium-producing regions, barring North America and Oceania. However, monthly output was affected by declines of 1,000 tonnes each in Africa and North America. According to IAI, the world's primary aluminium production in January 2025 totalled 6.252 million tonnes versus 6.254 million tonnes in December 2024 and 6.086 million tonnes in January 2024. The daily average output was 201,700 tonnes, representing no change from the previous month but a growth of 2.75 per cent Y-o-Y from 196,300 tonnes.

US domestic mine production of zinc down 27% on year in November 2024

According to a latest update from the USGS, the US domestic mine production (recoverable) of zinc in November 2024 was 45,700 metric tons (t). Mine production (recoverable) for the year through November was 674,000 t compared with 673,000 t in the same period in 2023. Average daily (recoverable) mine production in November was 1,520 t, 27% less compared with that in the previous month and 17% less compared with that in November 2023. The monthly average North American premium to the LME cash price in November 2024 was 17.4 cents per pound compared with 17.5 cents per pound in the previous month and 31% less compared with that in November 2023.

Outlook:

Copper prices surged in late February-early March 2025, hitting near three month as U.S. President Donald Trump suggested imports of the metal could be subject to a 25% tariff. Trump announced that the Commerce Department would undertake a sweeping investigation that could lead to levies on copper on national security grounds. COMEX Copper futures soared above $4.70 per pound following this and holding onto a largely bullish trajectory after ending February 2025 with a spike of 6.30%.