The sowing of summer crops is continuing at a slightly staggered pace on annual basis, according to the latest data from Department of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare. As on 05 April 2024, the total area under summer crops stood at 55.59 lakh hectares, up 3.97 lakh hectares or nearly 7% on year. Area under rice stood at 29.44 lakh hectares, up around 11% while that under Pulses stood at 8.97 lakh hectares, up 3% on year. Oilseeds acreage also rose by 3% to 8.48 lakh hectares. Coarse cereals’ sowing has increased to 8.71 lakh hectares, showing an increase of 0.54 lakh hectare or 6% on year.

Reservoir Storage

Central Water Commission is monitoring live storage status of 150 reservoirs of the country and is issuing weekly bulletin on every Thursday. Out of these reservoirs, 20 reservoirs are of hydro-electric projects having total live storage capacity of 35.299 BCM. The total live storage capacity of 150 reservoirs is 178.784 BCM which is about 69.35% of the live storage capacity of 257.812 BCM which is estimated to have been created in the country. As per reservoir storage bulletin dated 04.04.2024, live storage available in these reservoirs is 61.801 BCM, which is 35% of total live storage capacity of these reservoirs. However, last year the live storage available in these reservoirs for the corresponding period was 74.47 BCM and the average of last 10 years live storage was 63.095 BCM. Thus, the live storage available in 150 reservoirs as per 04.04.2024 Bulletin is 83 % of the live storage of corresponding period of last year and 98% of storage of average of last ten years.

Skymet SW monsoon rainfall forecast 2024

Skymet, a private weather forecasting company in its monsoon forecast for 2024 expects the upcoming monsoon to be ‘normal’ to the tune of 102% (with an error margin of +/- 5%) of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm for the four month long period from June to September. In its earlier estimate released on 12 January 2024, Skymet had also assessed the monsoon 2024 to be ‘normal’.

In terms of geographical prospects, Skymet expects sufficiently good rains in the South, West, and Northwest regions. Core monsoon rain fed zone of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will receive adequate rainfall. The eastern states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and West Bengal will be at risk of deficit rainfall during peak monsoon months of July and August. Northeast India is likely to observe less than normal rains during the first half of the season.

According to Skymet, there are 10% chance of excess rainfall of more than 10% of LPA, 20% chance of above normal (105 to 110% of LPA), 45% chance of normal (96 to 104 of LPA), 15% chance of below normal (90 to 95% of LPA) and 10% chance of drought (less than 90% of LPA). On a monthly scale, the precipitation is likely at95% of LPA in June, 105% of LPA in July, 98% of LPA in August and 110% in September.

Oilmeal Exports

According to Solvent Extractor’s Association of India or SEA, India’s export of Oilmeals for the month of February 2024 is provisionally reported at 515,704 tons compared to 471,770 tons in February 2023 i.e. up by 9%. The overall export of oilmeals during April 2023 to February 2024 reported at 4,490,055 tons compared to 3,760,329 tons i.e. up by 19%. The export of soybean meal during Apr.’23 to Feb.’24, reported at 19.34 lakh tons compared to 7.87 lakh tons during the same period of last year as Indian soybean meal was most competitive in the international market. However, currently as on 13th March 2024, Indian soybean meal (Ex-Kandla) has quoted at US$ 490 per ton while soya meal Argentine (cif Rotterdam) at US$ 415 per ton facing strong competition from Argentine origin and likely to slow down.

Outlook

According to Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare’s Second Advance Estimates of Major Agricultural Crops, the Kharif foodgrain production is estimated at 1541.87 Lakh Metric Tonnes or LMT, and Rabi foodgrain production is estimated at 1551.61 LMT. Kharif Rice production is estimated at 1114.58 LMT as compared to 1105.12 LMT in 2022-23, showing an increase of 9.46 LMT. Production of Rabi Rice is estimated at 123.57 LMT. Production of Wheat is estimated at 1120.19 LMT, which is higher by 14.65 LMT as compared to previous year production of 1105.54 LMT. The domestic agriculture and allied sectors growth is taking a toll following an inadequate monsoon.

The latest National Accounts data showed that Agriculture, forestry & fishing sector gross value added contracted by 0.8% in Q3 FY24 compared to Q3FY23, standing at Rs 7.02 lakh crore. This is the first contraction in the sector after 0.9% fall in Q4 FY19.

All-India Consumer Price Index for Agricultural Laborers and Rural Laborers (Base: 1986-87=100) remained steady in February 2024, with figures of 1258 and 1269, respectively. There was a varied pattern observed in the indices of constituent States. In the case of CPI-AL, eight states experienced a decline, while for CPI-RL, this downward trend was observed in seven states. Additionally, two states witnessed no change in their index. The month-to-month inflation rates based on CPI-AL and CPI-RL were recorded at 7.43% and 7.36% in February 2024 showing a decrease from 7.52% and 7.37% in January 2024 respectively.

The Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) is implementing strategic initiatives to diversify India's agricultural exports, focusing on key products like fresh fruits, vegetables, processed foods, and animal products. This approach aims to reduce reliance on a few commodities and elevate India's standing in the global value chain. APEDA is actively seeking partnerships with global supermarkets to showcase Indian products internationally and is collaborating with research institutions to streamline logistics, emphasizing its commitment to enhancing competitiveness and ensuring sustainable growth in agricultural exports.

Agriculture and allied activities went into contraction during the October-December 2023 quarter as the deficient southwest monsoon impacted the kharif harvest and fodder scarcity affected the livestock sector. Looking ahead, however, congenial conditions for the farm sector are foreseen. Various global weather models are forecasting that La Nina will set in by June and El Nino will turn neutral ahead of the forthcoming southwest monsoon season.

The governor of the Reserve Bank of India, Shaktikanta Das stated that food price uncertainties continue to weigh on the inflation trajectory going forward. A record Rabi wheat production would help temper price pressure and replenish the buffer stocks. Moreover, early indication of a normal monsoon augurs well for the kharif season. International food prices also remain benign. The tight demand supply situation in certain categories of pulses and the production outcomes of key vegetables warrant close monitoring, given the forecast of above normal temperatures in the coming months. Frequent and overlapping adverse climate shocks pose key upside risks to the outlook on international and domestic food prices.

Summer Crops Sowing as on 05 April 2024 (Source: Department of Agriculture & Farmer Welfare)